PGL Major Stockholm – Teams that can cause an upset

In the outright betting preview, we highlighted that the PGL Major Stockholm showcases a much larger number of teams who wouldn’t be considered contenders to win the tournament but are very capable of causing upsets. We know that NAVI have been in top form this year, especially immediately before and after the summer player break. However, beyond them, 66% of the field have an implied probability of only 5-10% of winning the tournament. That is an overwhelming sign that NAVI are indeed the favourites but also that the hierarchy for the rest of the field is unclear.

This article is our coverage of the teams who are not in the spotlight but have the potential to disrupt the competition. This is the longshots summary, covering the teams that anyone who loosely follows the scene can find reasons to write off but who also have the highest payouts. Note that I did not say they have the best odds because that would not be true. NAVI at 2.00, or even 1.25, is an exponentially better price to back than TYLOO at 100.00 or 500.00.

The potential of Evil Geniuses

This team are the first to stand out amongst the field, but it’s certainly not because of their recent form. As was touched on in our last article, the PGL Major Stockholm is broken into three stages; all teams begin at either the New Challengers stage or the New Legends stage. And Evil Geniuses are one of the fortunate eight teams to start in the New Legends stage. Three of these New Legend stage spots were given to the North American region and Evil Geniuses received the third, ahead of other powerhouse teams such as paiN Gaming and GODSENT. Evil Geniuses brought 600 Regional Major Ranking (RMR) points with them from 2020 to narrowly retain a bye into the New Legends stage. Additionally, they did not even control their own destiny to attain this third-place spot, but needed paiN Gaming to lose both matches in the playoffs of the recent IEM Fall event.

I have no illusions as to what Evil Geniuses have been like in 2021, with the team dropping out of the HLTV top 30. However, they have also had a significant amount of volatility coupled with some of their players feeling the need to take personal breaks for their mental health - something that is increasingly becoming a point of focus for esports professionals, as it should be.

However, Evil Geniuses are not just any unknown mix of North American players. Two years ago, at the StarLadder Major Berlin 2019, they were the only team to take down Astralis in the New Legends stage and did so 2-0 with one of the most epic performances in Counter-Strike history. They achieved a 31-28 scoreline on Train and also thrashed the Danes 16-4 on Nuke, the Danes’ favourite map at the time. Of course, Astralis had their revenge in the semi-finals, returning the 2-0 favour. However, by that time they were priced at just 1.6 against Evil Geniuses (then known as NRG). On that great run of success, they also took down NAVI in the quarter-finals. That was when Danylo Ihorovych "Zeus" Teslenko was still the In-Game Leader for NAVI.

Returning back to Evil Geniuses; off the back of their performance at the StarLadder Major Berlin 2019, the team earned a coveted top-five spot in the HLTV world rankings alongside fellow North Americans, Team Liquid − a first for the North American region. Evil Geniuses would go on to beat Astralis once again in the best-of-five final at IEM New York a few weeks later. This is not just about reminiscing past glories, though. The team have former top-20 talents in both Vincent "Brehze" Cayonte and Tsvetelin "CeRq" Dimitrov, veteran leadership in Peter "stanislaw" Jarguz, and budding talent in Owen "oBo" Schlatter. Former teammate Damian "daps" Steele is now their coach, and in him, they have someone who not only knows the team chemistry but has a wealth of experience in coaching and In-Game Leading.

Like the others holding a bye, Evil Geniuses will have longer to prepare and practice for the event. If this team are just a bit better on a few maps, they can take down the best teams coming from the New Challengers stage. Teams starting at this stage need to only win two best-of-ones and one best-of-three to finish in the top eight. The probability alone makes this worth a look on any team at the current odds, but especially those given a head start to begin in the top 16 (New Legends stage). As poor as the Geniuses’ slump has been this year, they have still conquered six teams who have been given a higher seed in the tournament, yet their outright odds price them among teams that have achieved significantly less in 2021.

Other teams to watch

Two additional rosters who are longshots on the To Win Outright market are Movistar Riders and GODSENT. Unlike Evil Geniuses, I do not believe either of these will make it to the final stages of the tournament. However, these are two teams who I have circled for their upset potential against the teams in the New Challengers stage. Both teams came out of the summer player break much improved and have been steadily climbing the HLTV rankings, with them both leapfrogging nearly 50 spots. They are both squads who may not have all the pieces necessary to win an event of this calibre, but they can certainly pick off teams far superior on a good day or with a favourable map veto.

Typically, with tournament preview articles of this nature, we’ll have a couple of teams who are frontrunners and then a group of longshot teams. However, this tournament is providing significant value on 10-16 teams not named NAVI. Heroic at 12.30* is undoubtedly a great bet to take and I may do so; however, their implied probability is not as enticing as Evil Geniuses’ who already start in the New Legend stage. This line of thought can be applied to many of the teams at the event. Similar to the biggest traditional sporting events, esports Majors frequently see very talented rosters finish not only empty-handed but having severely underachieved. If you followed DOTA 2’s The International 10 this past weekend, you would have seen Team Spirit repeat the OG esports magic of three years ago and defeat the heavy frontrunners PSG.LGD. NAVI are priced as steep as PSG.LGD were and they have had the target on their back for the last half of the year.

*Odds are subject to change.